Obama on Biden's 30 percent - the truth

In his press conference today there was the following exchange:

Question: Mr. President, at a speech Friday that many of us covered, Vice President Biden said the following thing about a conversation the two of you had in the Oval Office about a subject he didn't disclose.

"If we do everything right, if we do it with absolute certainty, if we stand up there and we really make the tough decisions, there's still a 30 percent chance we're going to get it wrong."

Since the vice president brought it up, can you tell the American people, sir, what you were talking about? And if not, can you at least reassure them it wasn't the stimulus bill or the bank rescue plan and if, in general, you agree with that ratio of success, 30 percent failure, 70 percent success?

Obama: You know, I don't remember exactly what Joe was referring to...

What was he really referring to?

Given the season, and speaking as someone who can totally empathize, its obvious.

Mr Biden and our President were discussing what to buy their respective spouses for valentines. Given my experience, 30 percent is a little optimistic.